LET THE MARKET TELL WHO WE ARE

Silver has been experiencing a strong down trend since it broke through the key support of 35000 which was also support line of a bearish flag continuation. Prices are now hovering near key support zones around 33400-33000. However, silver had witnessed some recovery on Monday and Tuesday but 2 days counter move is not enough to confirm a trend reversal. Today this metal has opened with a down side gap and staying below its opening price. We need a penetration of 33150 to confirm resumption to a larger degree down trend and then attempts towards 30700 zones can’t be ruled out. Stability below 33150 will also increase the possibilities of completion of CD leg (at 30700) of a bullish AB=CD pattern. Any move above 34200 might bring some recovery and then a jump towards 35200 can’t be ruled out. Any stability above 35200 zones might put this entire bearish setup in doubts where stability below mentioned resistance levels will keep on going down trend intact.

Nifty is currently trading at 8083. It had witnessed a sharp recovery in yesterday’s session after revisiting neckline of an inverse head and shoulder pattern. This chart is showing NIFTY’s love towards classic head and shoulder formation. Nifty is likely to stay in a range among 8000 and 8350. Areas of 8000 are supported by the neckline of an inverse HNS formation and 8350 are resisted by neckline of HNS bearish reversal pattern. Any confirmed breakout above or below these levels will clear the way for a bigger move. Nifty index has been experiencing down trend since March 2015 which has taken place in a channelized manner and currently we are trading in corrective leg of this bearish trend. Stability above 8000-7950 keeps nifty in short term trading range among 8000-8350. Any sustained move above 8360 will confirm resumption to longer term uptrend and then primary rally towards 8600 can’t be ruled out. Any failure of 7950 will invalidate current bullish move and then it will try to...

TECHM on NSE has been consolidating within an ascending triangle and stock is now witnessing some recovery from ascending trend line support of this pattern. Stock has witnessed multiple bottoms near 530 zones which is also supported by rising trend line and currently stock price has climbed above 20 days EMA which is also a supportive factor for short term bulls. Immediate support is now placed near 530; stability above this level keeps chances alive for a retest to resistance line of this triangle that stands near 578. Failure of 530 will invalidate this bullish setup and stock may witness retest to 510-480 zones. Based on the above setup, one can go long in this stock among 554-546 with stop loss of 530 for targeting 576 and more upside in coming days. Currently trading at 554.40.

Zinc is currently trading at 112.25 after hitting intraday low of 110.95. Counter had been moving in a nice down trend and formed a descending trend line breakout on October 9, 2015. Now this metal is fluctuating near its 30 days SMA that stands near 111.90 zones. Prices are getting support near 110.60 which is low placed during the month of August this year. A potential inverse head and shoulder reversal pattern can be seen clearly on daily chart. According to this pattern reversal will confirm above neckline breakout that stands near 123. Recovery from today’s low of 110.95 indicates buying interest in this metal. MACD is making higher top if compared with prices and suggests a hidden divergence. However, MACD has formed a bearish cross near center line but lack of follow through selling suggests a strong support near 111-110 zones. Price has stuck in a range and volume has shrunk that indicates low participation. Respect of 109 zones will result in a rally towards 122 and then 129 ...

NIFTY index has been witnessing a correction in a channelized manner after posting a life time high of 9119.20 during the month of March this year. Now index is moving in a corrective leg of this intermediate down trend. Recently nifty has headed a high of 8246.40 but failed to attract follow up buying after closing a full gap partially which was left during the month of August this year. On Monday, if this index manages to hold above 8250-8260 zones then it will try to head towards 8320-8360 to fill this gap completely. There is another small gap left between 8322 and 8360 zones and these areas are also resisted by 50% correction level of entire bearish move from high of 9119.20 to low of 7539.50. Presence of descending trend line near 8350-8360 zones will be a tough challenge for bulls. Price and time symmetry also hints a potential reversal from 8300-8350 zones. In other words, stability below 8260 will keep this index in a consolidation mode between 8100-8260. Recovery above 8260...

Gold is now trading at $1177.76 and testing its broken horizontal support that has flipped to become resistance now. Prices are staying within a potential rising channel and failing to attract further buying to confirm a breakout above the resistance line of this channel. Stochastic has reached in overbought territory and failing to make a new high if compared to August 2015 peak when gold headed a high of $1169.93. Divergence between price and indicator hints weakening of bullish momentum that may result in failure of current rally. Immediate resistance is now placed at $1192. Decisive closing above $1192 will neglect these expectations of a bearish reversal and then retest to $1204 and $1227 can’t be ruled out. If we get a confirmation above 1193 then next big hurdle will be around $1233. Support is now seen near $1174 and then at $1163. Key support remains at 1163 and stability above this support will keep this metal in a sideways mode between 1165 and 1190. Any sustained move belo...

Gold on MCX currently trading at 26278 it has witnessed a nice recovery after hitting a low of 25900 during recent bearish attempt. Gold had broken a descending trend line resistance on August 20, 2015 but couldn’t attract smart money and a nice sell off took place after printing a swing high at 27833. Prices were fluctuating just below 40 days EMA after forming a bullish cross over by 10 EMA during the month of August. Now 10 days EMA is staying above 40 days EMA that that qualifies a bullish trigger. Stochastic had reached in oversold territory and now it has formed a bullish cross and trying to recover from oversold territory. Once again stochastic has entered in oversold territory whereas prices are staying above 62% correction level of the swing that occurred from low of 24661 to high of 27833. This relation between price and stochastic indicator suggests a bullish divergence. Price action on chart maintains its bullish bias that was established by a bullish swing during the mont...

Nifty spot is currently trading at 8259, and this is the last session for the week ending on August 21, 2015. Today nifty has broken through the key support of 8355 established by a strong trend bar during the week ended on July 17, 2015. Possibility of a head and shoulder top reversal pattern is also visible and nifty has reversed from the height of the left shoulder and triggering possibilities of a head and shoulder reversal that will get confirmation if nifty manage to hold below its neckline around 7950 in coming days. As per current scenario market bias has turned bearish as prices have fallen below 20 weeks SMA and likely to settle below the same. Now areas of 8190 are a minor support if bulls manage to protect this level then we will see a consolidation among 8200-8500 in short term. Failure of 8190 will put focus back on the neckline support of this reversal pattern at 7960 and any weekly close below this level will offer a retest to 7200-6800 zones. A healthy correction is a...

Gold on mcx has opened with an upside gap and heading higher since its opening and currently trading at 26441. It has climbed above its down sloping trend line resistance and now approaching towards a congestion zone that stands around 26490-600 zones. Areas of 26540 are also resisted by 200 period’s simple moving average on daily chart. Stochastic has reached in overbought territory and may bring a temporary pause or correction near key resistance zones around 26540-600. Any sustained move above 26600 with 2 or more consecutive closes will supply more power to gold bulls and then we will see this metal heading towards 27000-27400 zones. Recommendation: one can look for selling opportunities near 26540-600 zones with a stop loss above 26870 for targeting 26200-25900-25450 in short term.

Gold on MCX has witnessed a nice decline in today’s session and it has headed a low of 24451 for the session and currently trading at 24550. As we can see on chart provided above a three pint bullish divergence is clearly visible on MACD and RSI indicators. Recently we have seen a bullish engulfing candle on hourly chart that hints possibilities of a bullish setup here. Considering current scenario favorable for a bullish trade on can look for a long trade in gold near the areas of 24530-500 with stop loss below 24450 for targeting 24670-24750-24870 and more upside.

Natural gas had witnessed a nice bullish attempt from low of 155.40 to high of 198.30 and then started consolidating in a symmetric triangle. Recently it has climbed above the down sloping trend line of this symmetric triangle. Prices are also getting support near 20 periods EMA. MACD has climbed above zero line and staying above its signal line that also hints positivity in this counter. 3 bar pull back setup is clearly visible on daily chart. Today natural gas is trading with positive bias after staying negatively biased for last 3 days. Recommendation: Based on the chart and explanations above buying natural gas around 182-180 with stop loss below 177.50 for targeting 195-205 and more upside might be appropriate in short term.

Nifty has been trading in a down sloping parallel channel and selling pressure occurred near the upper line of this channel. Once again nifty is showing some strength after completing 3 bar pullback on daily chart. 20 days EMA is providing good support to bulls and now nifty is trading above its 5 days EMA that stands near 8396. Stability above 5 days EMA indicates strengthening bullish momentum. MACD has climbed above center line and now it is testing its signal line from above. MACD reading above zero line remains supportive for nifty bulls. Based on 3 bar pullback setup today nifty has triggered a buy trade by crossing Friday’s high and suggests continuation in on going uptrend. Areas of 8390 and 8340 will remain crucial to watch out. 2 or more close below 8340 zones will hurt this bullish setup. Resistance is now seen near 8560 and then at 8800 zones. Currently trading at 8432. Recommendation: Fresh entry can be taken on declines near 8400-8370 with stop loss below 8300 for targ...

Silver has been fluctuating among 34000 and 41000 from last 6 month. Recently it has headed a low of 34011 on Tuesday this week but that day’s price action was neglected by yesterday’s bullish price action and silver settled with an inside bar on daily chart. Today we have seen a nice recovery after a breakout above 35167. Stochastic has recovered form oversold territory but struggling to cross above 40 and remains supportive for silver bears. MACD is also staying below centerline and its signal line that hints a down trend but MACD is getting closer to its signal line that hints weakening bearish momentum. Prices are staying below 20 days EMA that hints a down trend in this metal. As per current setup we are expecting silver to remain in positively biased sideways trend until it manage to break and hold below 34000. Key resistance remains near the areas of 36450-500 zones any sustained move above this level will bring some charm and then silver will trigger possibilities to retest th...

Silver on mcx is trading at 36850. Market is fluctuating in a narrow range and waiting for the outcome from today’s FOMC meeting. On daily chart silver has been trading in a rising parallel channel and now testing the support line of this channel. Prices are now fluctuating near 7 days EMA. 7 EMA on silver daily chart is playing very crucial role for short term trend identification. A reverse 3 is 1 bar setup is clearly visible and either side closing basis breakout from the setup bar will decide clear trend of this commodity. Silver remained in narrow range in yesterday’s trading session and formed an inside bar on daily chart. Today firs resistance will remain at 37125 any cross above this level will put focus on 37371-400 zones and any closing above these levels will confirm a trend reversal and then we will see this metal heading higher in coming days. A cross and close above 37400 will offer a primary rally towards 38000 and further stability above 38000 will bring 38500 and 3890...

Nifty future has fallen below its 200 days SMA recently and now hovering near the same. Today nifty futures has settled at 8238.70 on NSE forming a bullish pin bar. Follow up selling is not coming even though prices have fallen below 200 days SMA. 50 days SMA is still staying above 200 days SMA and keeping longer term bullish trend intact. On daily chart a Wolfe Wave pattern is clearly visible which has completed at point (5). Completion of WW brings trend reversal. Stochastic is fluctuating near 50 and forming lower top along with prices hints sideways activities. On hourly chart a bullish Wolfe wave and inverse head and shoulder patterns can be seen clearly. Market has witnessed a nice recovery from point (5) of bullish WW which is also forming head of inverse head and shoulder reversal pattern. Now we need a neckline breakout on hourly chart to validate this inverse head and shoulder pattern. On hourly chart stochastic is staying above 50 line and also loaded with positive momentu...

Today #NIFTY recovered nicely from 88.8% #Fibonacci_correction of previous bullish swing from low 8269.15 to high 8844.80 settled at 8429.70. Nifty has found support near the lower band of Bollinger and settled with a bullish pin bar/ hammer triggering possibilities of ‘W’ bottom near lower band. Possibilities of harmonic patterns bearish ‘Gartley’ and bearish ‘Crab’ have also triggered as market reversed from 88% correction of previous bullish leg ‘AB’ of this pattern. Immediate resistance is now seen near 8472 zones if market decisively holds this level then next possible resistance will be around middle band of Bollinger that stands near 8580. Further moves above 8580-8600 will trigger possibilities to complete #Gartley pattern that completes near 78.6% #correction_of_bearish_leg ‘XA’ at 8937. After that life time high 9119 will remain in focus and cross and close above that level will trigger the possibilities to complete bearish crab pattern that completes near 161.8% extension o...

NIFTY spot is currently trading at 8703. It has failed to climb above 8850 during 2 consecutive attempts and witnessed a nice sell off yesterday. Index has reversed exactly from 61.8% Fibonacci correction of a bearish swing from 9119.20 to 8269.15 triggering possibilities of AB=CD pattern in line with a probable head and shoulder reversal pattern. It has already completed leg ABC legs of AB=CD pattern and now leg D is due out that completes near 7994.75 zones. Potential head and shoulder pattern has a down sloping neckline and down sloping necklines has more significance than normal one. Failure of neckline is also occurs around 8000-7990 zones and decisive closes below those levels may bring a larger degree correction in market. Stochastic had also reached in extreme overbought territory and formed a bearish cross that is also supportive for short term bears. Currently nifty has strong resistance at 8850 any recovery above that level may help this index to move towards 8937-9000 zone...

Crude is witnessing a nice recovery after getting support near 2639 which was 113% Fibonacci extension of a bullish attempt from 2720 to 3340 that took place in February 2015. Harmonic shark pattern is clearly visible on daily chart. Currently crude is trading at 3366 staying above 3340, which was top formed during bullish attempts in February. Stochastic is staying above 50 and %K has formed a cross above %D in positive territory favours bullishness in this counter. If crude holds above 3366-70 zones decisively then it will increase odds for completion of this shark that completes at 3614 or 3861 zones. Any failure of 3100 may invalidate current bullish expectations.

  Today silver has headed an intraday high of 39090 but couldn’t sustain above 39000. When silver down in last week of January 39000 was the first reaction high placed during the first week of February. Now we are focusing on 39000 if silver manages to hold above that level then price objective for bulls would be 39700-40000. Key resistance for intermediate down trend would be 40600 and any sustained move above this level would increase the probabilities for completion of a harmonic structure which is widely known as bearish bat and than a rally towards 44000-44800 can’t be ruled out. Stochastic is loaded with strong momentum and stability above 50 hints bullishness for this counter. Areas of 37333 will remain in focus as trend support and any failure of this support would weaken the momentum and trend will turn sideways. Currently trading at 38848.

International spot gold is currently trading at $1208.70. Recently Gold witnessed a bullish breakout above descending trend line resistance but failed to climb above $1223 which was the high placed on February 19, 2015. Gold is now getting support near psychological level of $1200 and areas of $1190 are very strong support zones on daily chart. An inverse head and shoulder pattern is also visible on 240 min chart that has support at $1190 and neck line resistance at $1223 zones. Any sustained move above $1223 would call for a fresh rally that would help this metal to retest areas of $1240-1245. Key resistance would remain near $1260 and any closing above those levels would call for more upside. 14 periods RSI is staying above 40 and favouring bulls. 3 periods RSI has also climbed above 14 periods RSI which is also supportive for gold bulls. On lighter note stability above $1195-1190 zones remains bullish for gold and recovery above $1223 would confirm a rally towards $1245 zones where...

We all are waiting for union budget 2015-16 desperately and assuming whether government is going to reduce or not, import duty on gold and silver. If tomorrow government of India decides to reduce import duty on bullions then it will be a positive trigger for international precious metals. However reduced duty may impact domestic bullions market negatively but it would be a good bullish trigger for international bullion markets as cheaper import cost will attract importers that would initiate demand for these metals in international markets. For international spot gold areas of $1222-1224 are providing a stiff resistance once if it is taken out then we will see attempts towards $1240-50 zones. Currently gold is trading near $1215.   Feel free to write me at sunirathi@hotmail.com for any query regarding any trade.

Gold on mcx witnessed nice decline on Friday and headed an intraday low of 26681 and took support near Fibonacci price cluster that stands 26660-720 zones. Areas of 26660 are also supported by a rising trend line and oversold reading on stochastic indicators keeps chances alive for a potential recovery from 26700 zones. Today gold has opened with an upside gap and maintaining itself above previous closing price which is also a positive factor for this commodity. In past we have seen nice recovery from 26700 during bearish attempts and long legged candlesticks near that level hints a strong demand zone around these areas. We are expecting uptrend to remain intact until gold holds below 26660 zones decisively and attempts towards 27100-27300 and more upside can’t be ruled out. Any closing above 27500 would help this commodity to resume its on-going uptrend. Recommendation: Taking longs in gold around 26850-750 with top loss below 26550 (closing basis) for targeting 27200-27450 and mor...

Crude on Nymex is currently trading at $47.38 zones. Crude has been consolidation in a range among $44 to 50 for last few days. A potential inverse head and shoulder pattern is visible on 240 minutes chart and confirms above a 49.80-50$ zones. Recently 5 periods moving average has crossed above 13 periods moving average on this chart and both short term moving averages are staying above 50 periods moving average hints strength in this counter. 14 periods RSI is fluctuating among 40 and 60 levels suggests a sideways momentum. Outlook remains sideways until we get a clear breakout above $50 whereas breakout above $50 would call for a rally towards $52.50-54.50 zones. Areas of $46 to 45.50 would remain in focus to keep this pattern valid and any failure of those levels may trigger sharp declines in this counter.

Nifty spot has been moving in a rising channel and now trading at 8715 near upper edge of this channel. 8713.48 is 113% Fibonacci extension of bearish attempt from 8626.95 to 7961.35. Point ‘b’ was 70% correction of move ‘xa’ and recent breakout above 8627 zones has triggered possibilities for a harmonic pattern which is widely known as bearish crab pattern and this pattern completes near 9038-9060 zones. If today nifty fails to produce closing above psychological resistance of 8700 then we may see some consolidation that may be negatively biased and take nifty towards 8620-8450 zones. All in all market trend remains bullish until we get 2 consecutive negative closes on daily basis. Nifty has the potential to hit 8800-8910-9030 zones during this bullish whereas 2 consecutive negative closes may invalidate our bullish expectations.

Gold spot is currently trading at $1255; recently it has formed a bullish breakout above neckline resistance of an inverse head and shoulder pattern and hints a possible rally towards 1300-1320 zones in coming days. 14 periods RSI has 60 levels for the first time and confirms a zone shift on this indicator and supportive for gold bulls. Retest to 1235-1225 zones can’t be ruled out but traders can use those opportunities to buy this metal for a short term rally. Key support would remain at 1160$ for this outlook.

Crude oil on MCX is currently trading near 2817 zones. A perfect bullish crab pattern is clearly visible on mcx crude weekly chart that completes near 161.8% extension of leg XA near 2735 zones. Extreme oversold reading on stochastic also hints a possible recovery to offload oversold readings. Traders can look for buying opportunities near 2735-2700 and can use 2600 areas as stop loss for longs, in case of sustained move below 2700 current down trend may extend towards 2500-2300 and more down side.