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Fundamental Summary: Crude has been trading in a nice down trend and making new lows every day. Currently it is trading at 3418. Winter season is considered good for fuel sector and crude has been falling during 1 st half of winter session and hovering near $53.23. Falling crude price during winter and holidays season is irrational. We may see good demand during 2 nd half of winter season as winter will be on its peak and would trigger demand. Transportation activates are likely to increase during holidays season that also relates to crude oil consumption and will result in declining inventory and would be a supporting factor in coming days. We will see inventories will start declining during coming months and OPEC may also cap crude oil production which would trigger sharp recoveries in this counter. Technically crude on MCX is forming a bullish butter fly pattern and hints a possible recovery from point D that completes near 127.2% extension of move XA. 1 st accumulation can be ...

Copper has been trending down and forming a bullish wolf wave pattern. Metal has completed all 5 points of this pattern and now recovering from descending trend line support. MACD has been staying in bearish territory but recently it has climbed above its signal line that hints weakening bearish momentum and development of a fresh bullish momentum. Areas of 399 are also supported by 88% Fibonacci correction of a bullish move from 397.85 to 414.90 and 113% extension of recent bullish attempt from point 3 to point 4. MACD cross and presence of Fibonacci ratios near 399 zones suggests a strong support near 400-397 zones. Recommendation: As per chart and explanations above buying copper around 401-400 with stop loss below 397 for targeting 407-415 and more upside might be appropriate in short term, currently trading at 401.35

A bullish AB=CD pattern is visible on silver mcx daily chart. Currently we are trading in leg ‘CD’ of this pattern. Leg ‘BC’ was a counter move that has retraced leg ‘AB’ by 78.6%. In such patterns leg ‘CD’ is always equal to leg ‘AB’ or 127% extension of leg ‘BC’. Silver is now moving downwards to complete final leg ‘CD’ of this pattern that completes at 37593 zones. As per this pattern instrument reverses after completion of leg ‘CD’. Thus we expect a recovery in Silver from the areas of 37600-37500. Stochastic has been staying in oversold territory during the formation of leg ‘CD’ and now leg ‘CD’ is about to complete and oversold reading on stochastic would also prevent bears to enter aggressively and it would help this metal to recover from expected support zones to offload oversold reading. Recommendation: Buying silver on declines around 37600-37500 with stop loss of 37200 for targeting 38400-39000-39400 and more upside might be appropriate in short term.

A perfect Wolfe Wave pattern is clearly visible on daily chart of NIFTY Spot. Index has failed to produce stability above prior high 7808 which is also 5 th point of this bearish setup. A bearish divergence is also clearly visible on MACD and supportive for bears. As per this setup, stability below 7800 zones remains bearish for this stock index and it may try to test 7440 as primary support. Further stability below 7400 would extend this corrective move and retest to 7250-7200 can’t be ruled out. Areas of 7721 and then 7800 will remain crucial to watch and sharp recoveries above these levels may deactivate recent bearish triggers. Recommendation: as per current setup selling NIFTY on jumps around 7650-7700 with stop loss above 7810 for targeting 7440-7300 might be appropriate in next 9-27 days.

Indian markets have started a longer term Bull Run that is likely to remain continue for 2-3 years. NIFTY spot opened with a small gap on Tuesday and closed with positive note. Prices has climbed above resistance line of a flag consolidation and hinting more upside. A hidden bullish divergence is clearly visible on stochastic that is also sporting factor for bulls. We have drawn a dashed trend line by connecting May 30 th low 7118.45 and June 27 th Low at 7482.30 that is expected to provide a good support in coming days. Areas of 7531 and 7480 are likely to remain strong support as these areas are supported 10 days SMA and rising trend line. Resistance is now placed at 7665 and then at 7700 decisive closing above 7700 would call for a rally towards 7900-8200. Recommendation: Staying long or buying Nifty around 7600-7580 with stop loss below 7480 for targeting 7900-8200 and more upside might be appropriate in coming days.

Nifty has been moving in a nice uptrend and closed with a hanging man candlestick pattern in yesterday’s session. Stochastic is producing overbought reading which is marked by green line and preventing fresh bulls to jump in aggressively. Today areas of 7700-7705 will remain important to watch and any closing above that level would extend current bullish move towards 8000 whereas closing below 7700 will be responsible for a short term correction and we may see a retest to 7400-7300 zones in coming days. Currently trading at 7640.

Crude oil has been moving in a descending triangle that can be seen clearly on chart provided above and now trading near descending trend line resistance of this triangle which is around 6150. Commodity has also climbed above its 50 days SMA and 10 days SMA is also ready to climb above 50 days SMA that is also a bullish sign overs short term time frame. MACD has given a bullish cross above signal line and now fluctuating near zero line and further stability above zero line would trigger strong bullishness in this counter. Stochastic is also getting support around 50 and now getting ready for a bullish cross that indicates strengthen bullish forces in this commodity. Immediate support is now placed near 6050 zones any failure below this level would neglect current bullishness and then commodity will try heading towards 5950 zones and closing below 5950 would bring 5800 and more down side. Stability above 6050 remains bullish for this commodity and any closing above 6200 would bring 6...

An inverse cup and handle pattern is clearly visible on hourly chart of Crude oil MCX. Commodity is now attempting to breach key support zones of 5980-5960 that would result in resumption to proceeding down trend. Commodity couldn’t sustain above 6060 zones and witnessing a nice selloff during today’s session. Resistance for current move is now placed at 6060 any sustained move along with closing would neglect our bearish expectations and then we may see attempt towards 6140 and more upside. Stability below 6060 remains bearish and closing below 5960 would result in a decline towards 5650-5500 and more down side in coming days. Recommendation: selling crude on jumps around 6010-6030 with stop loss above 6060 on closing basis for targeting 5800-5650-5500 and more down side might be appropriate in short term.

Gold has been trading in a rectangle ranging among key support of 28200 and resistance at 30800 from past 7 months. Recently commodity has broken through the support of 28200 and headed a low of 27770 during bearish attempt but couldn’t get enough selling forces and climbed back above 28200 in next trading session. Today again Metal faces selling pressure near 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of entire bearish swing from high of 30737 to a low of 27770. MACD has given a cross above signal line but holding below line zero that indicates downward momentum in this commodity. 10 days SMA is also below 40 days SMA that qualifies as a sell signal based on moving averages. Immediate support is now placed at 28200 any sustained move below this level would confirm resumption to preceding down trend and then commodity will try hitting 27800 zones as primary target whereas further stability below 27700 would result in a decline towards 27200-26100 zones in coming days. Recommendation: Selling gold o...

Natural gas jumped nicely after hitting areas of 258. Areas of 257 were strong resistance during the month of September 2013 that is now serving as good support. Today’s trading range is covering yesterday’s range on daily chart that qualifies as a valid bullish engulfing reversal pattern. If today commodity closes above 265 zones then it will attract more bulls and a rebound can’t be ruled out in coming days. Stochastic is now producing oversold reading and preventing fresh bears to jump in. Recommendation: Buying natural gas around 265-263 with stop loss below 259 for targeting 271-276-280 and more upside might be appropriate in short term.

Silver spot has been trading in a descending parallel channel and now breaking through rising support of ascending triangle pattern within this channel indicating resumption to bearish direction. However a bullish crossover has happened on short term and long term moving averages but no follow up buying seen and reversal occurred from resistance line of descending channel. MACD is hovering near zero and any move below zero would be added advantage for silver bears. Immediate support is now seen near 19.40 and any failure below this level would call for a retest to 18.90 zones. 18.30 zones. Key support remains at 18 and any failure below 18 would bring 17-16.70 on cards. Resistance is now placed at 20.10 and then at 20.60 any sustained move above 20.60 would neglect bearish expectations in this metal and then recovery can’t be ruled out for retest to 22 and more upside. Recommendation: selling silver on jumps around 19.70-19.90 with stop loss above 20.30 for targeting 18.90-18.30 and ...

Nifty spot is getting good support near 6130-6100 zones and has witnessed a nice jump from those levels. A potential rounded top is clearly visible on daily chart of Nifty that hints the weakening momentum but weakness is not yet confirmed by price action and technical indicator MACD. As we can see in chart provided above MACD has given bearish cross below signal line but holding above zero line that favours 6100 as very crucial support. Any failure below 61000 would confirm weakness in this index and then primary target for bearish swing would be support placed in November 2013 that was around 5965. In general stability above 6100 remains supportive for Nifty bulls and sustained move above 6355 would bring more charm. Recently Index has broken out above the neck line of inverse head and shoulder pattern that suggests a target for 6700 for current swing. Overall this rally is open for a retest to 6700 zones. Any failure with closing below 6100 would neglect this bullish outlook and th...

Gold spot is witnessing double bottom at 1180 zones and nicely jumped after hitting 1182 during this decline. Bullish AB=CD pattern is also clearly visible on daily chart and has completed its CD leg at 1182 and now suggesting bullish resumption from point D which is exactly near prior bottom of 1180. Prices have climbed above 25 days SMA which stands at 1220 and now getting support near the same. 14 periods RSI is also showing bullish divergence and supporting reversal in this commodity. Immediate support is now placed at 1220 and stability above this level remains bullish whereas failure of 1220 with daily closing may trigger bearishness and then retest to recent lows around 1190 and more down side can’t be ruled out. Resistance seen near 1250 zones and sustained move above that level would bring 1270 on cards. Key resistance remains at 1272-75 zones and sustained move above 1272 would result in a rally towards 1300-1360 zones in coming days. Recommendation: buying gold around 12...