LET THE MARKET TELL WHO WE ARE

Above is 5 years weekly chart of Natural gas MCX. Aw we can see clearly in chart provided above commodity is getting support near 2011-2012 highs that are stand in the zones between 222-218. Commodity is holding well above 10 and 20 weeks SMA lines whereas 20 weeks SMA is also above 50 weeks SMA hints a bullish environment in this commodity. Prices are getting good support near rising trend line and 50 weeks SMA. 14 Periods RSI is also above 50 favouring bullish environment. Fundamentally winter season is considered good for demand prospective which is also a bullish factor for this commodity. Recommendation : Buying Natural gas among 230-225 with stop loss below 215 (closing basis) for targeting 270 and more upside might be appropriate in 1-3 months.

Provided is the weekly line chart of NIFTY spot. Here I am using simple approach to analyse current market behaviour instead using much complicated Elliot wave or Harmonic patterns. As we can see classical multi tops are clearly visible on this chart near the areas of 6340. This time index did a high of 6342 on the auspicious day of Diwali during Muhurat Trading but wasn’t able to produce weekly close above the 6340 levels to confirm a clear breakout. On longer term time frame NIFTY has been consolidating among key support of 4700 and resistance at 6340 since 2009. INDEX was moving up with weakening momentum that can be seen on RSI oscillator. RSI was not able to hit its previous highs that were placed during the previous attempts towards 6330 zones and now hovering under 60 zones is a clear case of bearish divergence and indicates zone shift that may result in consolidation or trend reversal. Rising parallel channel is also drawn on the chart above but index turned back from previous...

VADILALIND (NSE) has been trading in a nice descending channel and now an inverse head and shoulder pattern is clearly visible on daily chart. Stock is holding above its 20 and 50 days SMA and 20 days SMA has given a bullish cross above 50 week SMA confirming a short term shift in trend. MACD has climbed above zero line and now getting ready for a bullish cross above signal line that would attract fresh buyers in this stock. Stock has formed a breakout above neckline of inverse head and shoulder pattern. Now rally towards 200 days SMA (160) looks imminent and further stability above the same would extend current bullish move for a retest to down sloping trend line resistance of a bearish parallel channel. Recommendation: As per charts and explanations one can go long in this stock around 148-140 zones with a stop below 130 for targeting 160-180 in near term.

As we can see in chart provided above Nifty is witnessing multiple tops near 6090-6150 zones. Nifty has tasted that zone 5 times in last 6 months but every time it is facing selling pressure near the same. Recently we have seen another failed attempt to resistance zones which was confirmed by a bearish engulfing candlestick formation. Bearish candlestick formation is a bearish reversal pattern. Inverse head and shoulder pattern is also visible which has up sloping neckline. Inverse head and shoulders with up sloping neck line have strong bullish implication than normal head and shoulder. Any successive breakout above 6200 levels may witness an extensive rally of 800-1000 points from neckline. Election year is also approaching that would definitely prevent bulls to play blindly and we may see a withdrawal by FII before 2014 elections and there is no surprise if NIFTY start correcting from these levels and current highs may remain market top for next 6-8 months. It’s time to trade cauti...

A nice bearish attempt has taken place in Gold spot after hitting a high of 1329 on October 8, 2013. Gold has witnessed a decline of 78$ form its recent top as we mentioned in our previous post and now trading at $1282. Now a falling wedge pattern is clearly visible on 240 min chart which is considered as trend reversal pattern. Current moves also qualify a wolf wave sequence which has triggered the entry at point 5 and indicating a retest to the line drawn by connective 1-4. Inverse Head and shoulder pattern is also visible on hourly chart which has neckline resistance at 1290 and any successive penetration of neckline may lead a rally of $30. Bullish divergence on MACD is indicating weakening bearish momentum and trend reversal is likely. Any Failure below 1260 may neglect our current bullish expectations and then metal would try to head towards 1180 and more down side. Whereas stability above 1260 remains bullish and recovery above 1290 would bring more charm and then commodity wil...

As we can see in chart provided above, a nice down trend has been apparent in Gold spot. Commodity has recently broken through the support line of symmetric triangle and headed a low of 1277 after break down. The Base of this triangle has the range of 82$ which hints a decline of 82$ from the breakout level which was around 1320 zones. As per the triangle breakout now gold has the potential to hit 1240-1234 zones. 14 and 40 days EMA pair has been working well in this commodity and now 14 days EMA has given a bearish cross under 40 days EMA that also indicates that a down trend is in place. Immediate resistance is now placed near 1320 and then 1340 zones. Any sustained move above 1340 zones may negate the recent bearish developments of this commodity and then it may try moving towards 1390-1400 zones otherwise metal is open for a retest to 1240-1233 zones.

MENTHAOIL September contract has been trading in a nice down trend and closed at 852 levels. A nice consolidation seen in this commodity among key support of 850 and resistance of 880 but couldn’t confirm any clear breakout during the consolidation. Today commodity has broken the key support of this range that qualifies a potential bearish flag and hitting a decline towards 800 zones in coming days. Next possible supports are 843 and then at 834 any sustained move below 830 levels would bring 807 on cards. Resistance is now seen at 870 and then at 880 any established move with closing above 880 may negate the validity of this pattern. Recommendation: Selling Mentha oil on jumps around 854-859 for target 835-808 with invalidation of 880 might be appropriate.

Sign of potential inverse Head & Shoulder pattern appearing on daily chart of COMEX copper after 5 months of consolation among Key support at $2.950 and Resistance at $3.400. 14 Periods daily RSI hovering above 50 levels and supports bullishness in this metal. Areas of 3.400 are now resisted by neckline of this pattern and breakout above that would bring a rally towards 3.800 levels in coming days. Copper can be next rocket among the metals pack.

Potential HNS is appearing on NIFTY spot weekly chart which has neckline support near the areas of 5600. Areas of 5600 are also supported by horizontal support which suggests these levels as very crucial support on daily and weekly closing basis. As per chart provided above if nifty manage to settle below 5590 for 2 daily and 1 weekly basis then down move would extend towards 5327-5080-4945 zones. Stability above 5590 on weekly closing basis remains safe for bulls and it may witness a recovery after retest to June 2013 lows 5566. Indian economy is in worst conditions. RBI in its policy review has cut India's economic growth estimate to 5.5% from 5.7% estimated in May which is underlying bearish factor for domestic markets. Rising crude oil prices in international markets while domestic currency is trading at all-time lows is also a serious concern and would keep inflation on top and it would be a big challenge to maintain current account deficit to a sustainable level. Fundamenta...

Head and shoulder top reversal pattern is appearing on Gold MCX daily chart. Gold has broken the up sloping neck line support of this pattern and now retesting that broken neckline near 27900 zones. Metal has placed immediate support around 27550 further stability below this level would attract more supply in this commodity and then a retest to 27200-26800 zones may take place. MACD is hovering near zero line and getting ready for a bearish cross below its signal line that would bring strong bearish momentum in this commodity. Recommendation: Selling gold on jumps around 27850-900 zones, with stop loss above 27950 (closing basis) for targeting 27300-26900 might be appropriate for short term. Currently trading at 27782, traders are advised to enter in said range only.

Potential inverse head and shoulder pattern is appearing on NYMEX crude daily chart, which has neckline resistance near $97.50. Sustained move above 97.50 would signal continuation in bullish trend and then a primary rally would take it to 105-107 zones. Supports are now placed at $93.40 and $90 levels. Any failure below $90 dollars would neglect recent bullish developments and then counter may again turn sideways. MACD has given a bullish cross over and has been moving above zero line which indicates bullish momentum. 14 periods RSI is also moving in bullish territory. Recommendation: buying crude above 98 with stop loss below 93 (daily closing basis) for targeting 103-107 might be appropriate in short term.

Nifty has completed its all primary targets after failure below the neckline of head and shoulder top reversal pattern. Today’s gap down opening with spinning top candlestick pattern near lower band of Bollinger with oversold reading on stochastic indicator hints a possible recovery in this index. If index manage to open gap up tomorrow then short covering may help this counter to fill the gap and closing above 5730 zones would activate buy signal based on Bollinger band trading system. Recommendation: buying nifty above 5730 with stop loss below 5690 (closing basis for targeting 5800 and more upside might be appropriate in short term.

A classical head and shoulder reversal pattern has appeared on NIFTY daily chart which has broken its down sloping neckline support. According to this breakout primary targets for NIFTY spot would be around 5720-5700 zones. Pattern appeared with down sloping neckline and such kind of patterns are considered more powerful then flat or up sloping necklines. Traders can look for selling opportunities on jumps during the retest to broken neckline around 5940-5960 zones. Recommendation: selling nifty on jumps around 5940-5960 with stop loss above 6000 on closing basis for targeting 5720 and more down side might be appropriate in short term. Note* Levels are based on Nifty Spot analysis, Kindly adjust premium or discounts while trading Nifty Futures.

Here is the daily chart of ZINC MCX showing rounding bottom which is considered a bullish reversal pattern. Commodity has been trading in ranges of 100-104 for more than 40 days. Today metal has broken out its key resistance of 104. A bullish continuation candlestick pattern named rising three Method has also appeared recently which is a trend continuation pattern. As per current developments we can say areas of 101.50 has become strong support and stability above 104 on daily closing basis would bring 106.90 and 108 on cards. 14 periods RSI is also moving up along with bullish divergence. RSI producing 62.55 reading and reading above 50 is considered bullish signal. Recommendation: Buying zinc on between 104.10-103.80 with stop loss below 101.50 for targeting 106.90 and more upside might be appropriate in short term, currently trading at 104.25

Sign of potential double top has seen in Natural gas MCX hourly chart. As shown in chart above commodity has been fluctuating near its 23 days old resistance at 238.50 but couldn’t hold the gains above the same to confirm a bullish breakout. As we can see in chart provided above commodity has broken a steeper (green dashed) trend line and now getting support at another (black) trend line which is supporting the areas of 234. At the same time bearish divergence has seen on MACD daily chart which indicates weakening momentum in this commodity. Now trader’s eyes will remain on the areas of 234 and any failure of this level would bring a retest to 231-226-221 and more down side. Stability above 238 would keep bullish scenario intact and then commodity would lead a rally towards 242-247 and 270 zones over the midterm time frame. Recommendation: Selling natural gas near the areas of 236-238 for targeting 231-226-216-206 with stop loss above 239 on daily closing basis might be appropriate....

Here is the example of Inverse head and shoulder bottom which appears on Lead MCX daily continuation chart. As shown in chart above recently metal has broken out above its neckline resistance at 112. During yesterday’s decline leaded did an intraday low 112.10 but couldn’t break that level because of existence of neckline resistance which has now turned support. As per the depth of this pattern lead is now likely to hit 120 in coming days. Areas of 118.60 are the 50% Fibonacci retracement of previous bearish that may work as good resistance. Support is now seen near 112 and 2 or more closing below the same may hurt our bullish expectations and then failure of inverse head and shoulder pattern may occur. Recommendation: Buying lead between 113.60-112.50 with stop loss below 111.50 on daily closing basis for targeting 118-120 might be appropriate in short term currently trading at 113.90.

Gold on MCX headed a an intraday low of 25373 on Monday in morning session and then nicely recovered in evening session and closed above Fridays closing prices. 1 day spike near key support of 25300, qualifies as Eve and Adam double bottom formation. Stochastic has been moving in oversold territory and now trying to offload oversold reading with a bullish crossover under oversold line. Now bulls eyes will remain at 27450 and sustained rebound above the same would result in a rally towards 29000. Areas of 25300 are likely to act as good support but in case of failure of this support decline may extend towards 23800-23500 zones. Appearance of Eve and Adam double bottom near 25300 suggests a worth buying opportunity in this commodity and one can look for longs in range between 25900-25700 as per his risk taking ability. Accumulation can be done in mini lots, traders can start buying mini lots of gold from 26000 and can add 1 more lot on every decline of 100 rupees till 25400 zones for ta...

Potential Bearish Crab pattern has appeared on weekly chart of NIFTY which completes at 2.24% Fibonacci extension of Leg BC at 6762. If wave CD extends then this rally may remain continue to 3.618 Fibonacci extension of Leg BC which is around 7988. Overall picture is still bullish as per this harmonic analysis and areas of 6111.80 and 6360 are very stiff hurdles for NIFTY. In near term stability above 6111.80 would confirm an attempt to 6300-6350 zones. Sustained rebound above 6360 would confirm a primary rally towards first expected reversal level to 6762 or in case of extension of this rally then next bearish reversal point on broader picture would be 7988. Areas of 5477 has become very strong support on longer term picture which are supported by horizontal support and rising trend line any failure of these levels may hurt our longer term bullish outlook on NIFTY and then corrective rally may take it to 4500 zones.

Nice buying interest seen in base metals since morning. Zinc May contract is now trading at 101.70  with 55 paisa gain sine previous closing. As shown in chart above metal is approaching near key resistance zones of 101.80-102. Zinc prices are now moving in a rising parallel channel which has a strong resistance at its mid line of 101.80 while areas of 102 are resisted by 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and sustained rebound above this level would lead a rally towards areas of 104-105 zones. MACD is now getting support at zero line and forming a bullish cross above its signal line which hints bullish momentum in this commodity. Recommendation: buying zinc between 101.50-101.30 with stop loss below 100.50 for targeting 104-105 might be appropriate in short term.

Copper COMEX bounced off from crucial level $3.0500 which was supported by descending parallel channel line. Metal made a double bottom at the crucial level of 3.0500 and jumped nicely. Price breakout objective for bulls is now placed at $3.2755 and sustained rebound above that level may help this metal to recover from current down trend. Areas of 3.2755 are expected to act as strong resistance and if selling pressure appears near the same then we will see a near term consolidation in this metal between key support at 3.0500 and resistance at 3.2755. Overall trend is down but bears need to show more power by producing closing below $3.000 to confirm a fresh bearish attempt. There are 2 possible opportunities to trade this metal. 1. Selling copper near $3.2600-3.2700 with stop loss above 3.2800 (closing basis for targeting $3.1000 and more down side in short term. 2. Buying copper if manage to produce close above 3.2755. In that scenario buying copper around 3.2755-3.2650 with stop lo...

Gold MCX June contract has been trading in a nice down trend and headed a low of 29580 which is life time low for this particular contract. As we can see in chart provided above, metal turned back from key resistance of 20 days EMA and descending trend line and now trading below 10-20 and 50 days EMA which indicates a down trend on short term and midterm time frame. MACD is hovering under zero line and now getting ready to cross under signal line which would be added advantage for Gold bears. 14 periods daily RSI is under 50 and hints bearishness in this commodity. Price objective for bulls is now placed at 30100. Any recovery above 3100 may help this metal to jump towards 30250-30400 zones. Stability below 30100 zones keeps bearish scenario intact and this decline may extend towards 29200-28600 zones in coming days. Recommendation: as per charts and explanation above, selling gold on jumps around 29800-29900 with stop loss above 30100 on closing basis for targeting 29250-28900-286...

Silver has been trading in a down trend and now fluctuating near the descending trend line resistance which is around 55300. Strong resistance is now placed near 55300 and bulls need to produce minimum 2 consecutive closes above the same to confirm a rally towards 57500-58000 zones. Metal is trading below 10-20 days EMA on daily continuation chart which supports a short term bearish environment. RSI fluctuating under 50, in bearish territory. MACD is also hovering under zero line which hints a down trend over the short term. Immediate support is now seen near 53800 zones, any failure with daily closing would bring 53300-52800-51400 on cards. In general trend is down and stability below 55300 on daily closing basis keeps bearish scenario intact for possible targeting around 51800-51400. Recommendation: selling silver on rallies around 54400-54600 with stop loss above 55300 (closing basis) for targeting 52800-51400 in short term.

As we can see in chart provided above copper has broken the neck line of head and shoulder pattern on daily chart and headed a low of 426.65 during this bearish attempt. Now copper is getting support at weekly rising trend line that may provide a temporary support to copper prices and metal may rebound to retest its broken neck line around 435. Normally broken supports work as resistance so metal is likely to resume its bearish move after a retest to neckline. Immediate support is now placed at 426.65 and closing below the same may witness fresh bearish move towards 416 and more down side. Recommendation: selling copper on rise around 435-437 with stop loss above 444 for targeting 427-417-414 might be appropriate in short term. Currently trading at 429.30

Silver international has been moving in a consolidation pattern ranging $26-$35 for more than 1.3 years. As per current scenario silver has key support at $28.30 failure of this support would offer a retest to 26$. Areas of $26 would be key support and penetration of this support would offer areas of $21 and then $19 as primary supports in a time frame of 1-3 years. MACD is fluctuating near zero line and stability below zero would be added advantage for silver bearish. Areas of 32.50 would remain key resistance for this outlook and recoveries above the same may hurt our longer term bearish expectations in silver. Currently trading at $28.68.

As we can see in chart provided above nickel bulls are struggling to cross key resistance of 1000. Bearish divergence on stochastic hints a profit taking that may take this metal towards 965 and then 950 zones. Overall areas of 925 will remain key support on intermediate charts and stability above the same would serve 1080-1115 as primary resistance zones. Immediate resistance seen at 998-1000 stability below the same keeps a corrective scenario possible and metal may try finding support near 965-950 zones. Recommendation: Staying short from 980-985 with stop loss of 998 for targeting 966-956-946 might be appropriate. Buying nickel on decline between 955-945 with stop loss of 925 (closing basis) for short term targeting 1040-1080 and more upside might be appropriate. In alternative scenario buying nickel above 998 with stop loss of 978 for targeting 1020-1040-1080 might be appropriate in short term.

NIFTY spot currently trading at 5870.75, recently it has broken 9 month old rising trend line. Today nifty opened with gap in direction of preceding move and today’s trading session is last trading session for current week. Recently it has placed key resistance at 5970 and bulls need to hold that level decisively to claim their presence. Stability below 5970 remains supportive for nifty bears and it has the potential to move further down side. Areas of 5800 are looking strong support and failure of this level would offer 5550 as primary supports. 14 periods daily RSI has been trading in bearish territory while failure below zero line with bearish cross on MACD hints a strong bearish momentum. Recommendation: Selling nifty between 5890-5930 with closing basis stop loss of 5978 for targeting 5820-5660-5550 might be appropriate for short term.

Gold April contract has broken longer term rising trend line on daily continuation chart and now fluctuating near support line of longer term rectangle which stands around 30700 zones. Gold bears need to show more power very soon by producing closing below 30650 zones for 2 consecutive days. Respect of 30650 may witness a recovery from current levels and a bullish attempt towards 200 days EMA, which stands at 31150 can’t be completely ruled out. 14 Periods RSI hovering near potential support of 30 and may help bulls to produce some bullish momentum. Over sold reading on stochastic may trigger higher fluctuation and may help bulls to push this metal higher towards areas of 31000. A majority of Technical indicators suggest bearishness in this metal but entering near areas of 30730-680 zones may be worth buying with a closing basis stop loss below 30600 for targeting 31000 and more. Closing below 30600 would trigger further weakness and a dip towards 30300 and then 30000 is likely.

Nickel February contract is looking very attractive on scale and it is likely to rally towards 1100 in coming days, areas of 990 are acting as strong resistance. MACD is hovering near zero line and giving a bullish cross over which would trigger a strong bullish momentum in coming days. appearance of CUP and handle pattern is also added advantage for nickel bulls and sustained rebound above 990-1000 zones would call for 80-100 rupees upside rally. Recommendation: Traders can look for buying opportunities in this commodity on decline around 960-940 with closing stop loss of 930 for targeting 1080-1100 in near term.